Stat of the Month

Wooden Bridge Through Autumn Woods

We just completed a review of the September numbers in our market.

Here is the one number that is standing out to us – average price.

Prices are way up over last year.  Here are the specific average price increases in each of our markets compared to September 2019:

  • Metro Denver = 13.2%
  • Larimer County = 16.9%
  • Weld County = 7.4%

This change in prices has of course generated questions from our clients.

To help our clients answer questions about prices and other real estate topics, we have set up a private online event with our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.

The event is set for Tuesday from 9:00 to 10:00.

Simply reach out to any Windermere broker to receive your registration link.

Matthew will be addressing these questions as well as many others:

  • What effect will the election have on the economy and on real estate?
  • How long can interest rates stay this low?
  • Can prices keep appreciating at their current pace?

This online event is for the clients and friends of Windermere.  If you would like to register, please connect with your Windermere broker.

Posted on October 2, 2020 at 7:40 pm
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Colorado Housing, Economics 101, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Forbearance Falls

This is good news for the real estate market.

Less and less people are seeking payment relief on their mortgages.

The number of loans currently in forbearance stands at 7.16%.

This news coincides with the U.S. Unemployment Rate falling to it’s lowest level in 5 months as more people are getting their jobs back.

The economy has added back roughly half of the 22.2 million jobs that were lost in March and April of this year.

waterfall

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Posted on September 23, 2020 at 12:00 pm
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Spring in Summer

This year the Spring market is occurring in the Summer.

Typically the busiest months for real estate along the Front Range are April, May and June.

This year, because showing activity was restricted in the Spring months, we are seeing robust activity this Summer.

Here’s an indicator.  Sales through July 2020 versus July 2019 are up:

  • 12.6% in Metro Denver
  • 17% in Northern Colorado

To see double-digit increases in sales despite was is occurring in the National economy, is nothing short of remarkable.

At Windermere Real Estate we are taking Safer at Home and Social Distancing very seriously.  Our people are following our Safe Showings protocol, staying connected to their clients, and providing help wherever needed.

Posted on July 31, 2020 at 8:33 pm
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Health Crisis Not Housing Crisis

Here is the latest video from our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner.  It’s full of great nuggets about what is happening in the economy and the real estate market today.  Just click the image below to play the video.

Posted on April 6, 2020 at 1:07 pm
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Economy, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Economist’s Perspective

Posted on March 20, 2020 at 7:00 pm
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Fun Facts, Market News, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

A History Lesson

With the stock market on a wild ride and the Dow Jones dropping nearly 1,000 points yesterday, it makes some people wonder if the local real estate market might also crash or at least “correct.”

A little history lesson is in order.

Over the last 40 years, the real estate market along the Front Range has averaged 5.5% appreciation per year.

The highest appreciation in one year was 15.9% in 1994.

The lowest ever was -4.0% in 1982.

The last time Wall Street was in turmoil and the stock market was plummeting was 2008.  This was, for many reasons, the worst economy of our lifetime.

That year real estate along the Front Range dropped 2.2%.

Meanwhile that year the Dow Jones fell 33.8%.

Bottom line, our market has no history of crashing or even experiencing a major correction.

Why is that?

The answer is fundamentals.

Our local economy has inherent fundamentals that insulate it from big downturns.

We have an incredibly diverse economy which is not reliant upon a single industry.  We have all the way from health care, to technology, agriculture, oil and gas, major universities, and financial services (just to name a few).

We are a global destination with a major international airport.

Oh, and the quality of life here isn’t too shabby.

Prices of real estate, just like prices of anything, come down to basic economic principles of supply and demand.

Because of our diverse economy and desirable quality of life, there has been strong, consistent demand for housing along the Front Range.

While there may be little bumps along the way, over the long term our market has proven that it performs.

Posted on March 6, 2020 at 10:20 pm
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Economy, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Job News

There is an abundance of great news when it comes to employment in Colorado.

The unemployment rate is incredibly low at 2.7% which is almost a full percentage point lower than the U.S. average.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Metro Denver added 28,300 jobs over the last year which ranks 15th out of all metropolitan areas nation-wide, many of which have much larger populations than Denver.

While this is positive news, what is even more remarkable is what is happening in the other, smaller cities along the Front Range.

Anytime job growth exceeds 2.0% per year, it is a sign of a very healthy economy.

Here is what the other Cities have seen in terms of job growth over the last 12 months.

• Fort Collins 2.6%

• Greeley 2.5

• Colorado Springs 1.9%

Posted on December 4, 2019 at 12:00 pm
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Blog, Fun Facts, Windermere Real Estate | Tagged , , , , ,

“How’s The Market?”

Have you found yourself thinking “How’s the Market?”

If you are curious to know the current stats, trends, and dynamics in our market, this online workshop is for you!

See exactly what is happening in our real estate market today so you are clear about where it is going. The questions we will answer for you:

– Are prices still going up?
– Is there a housing bubble?
– Will interest rates ever go up?
– Is now a good time to buy or sell?
– Where are all these people coming from?

Please reach out if you have any additional questions or wish to receive a complimentary home pricing analysis.

Posted on September 17, 2019 at 3:28 am
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Blog, Buyers & Sellers, Economics 101, Market News | Tagged , , , , ,

Four in Forty

Did you know, according to FHFA, prices in Larimer County have dropped more than 1% only four times in the last 40 years?

FHFA stands for the Federal Housing Finance Authority. We are one of 261 markets that they track. Since 1978 they have been measuring home price appreciation here.

If you look at the appreciation numbers for each individual year, you will notice that most years the prices go up and some years the prices go down.

But there have only been four times in those 40 years where prices decreased more than 1%.

Here is what happened those four times:

  • 1982 = -3.99%
  • 1987 = -1.86%
  • 2008 = -2.29%
  • 2010 = -1.12%

Sometimes we hear buyers say that they would like to wait for the “prices to come crashing down.” The reality is that the price drops don’t happen all that often and when they do, they don’t drop by that much at all.

If you would like to see a short video with a recap of our annual Market Forecast presentation, watch the video below.

Posted on February 23, 2019 at 12:24 am
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Economy, Fun Facts | Tagged , , , , ,

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on August 10, 2018 at 9:00 am
Meaghan Nicholl | Category: Blog, Economy, Real Estate Market Update | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,